I was at a telecommunications summer conference this week. I heard lots of speeches and lots of advice on surviving the current economic and competitive landscape. I heard about getting your hands on stimulus money, retaining revenue streams, etc. I heard one speech by the CEO of the National Exchange Carrier Association, Bill Hegman. In the midst of all those speeches, his seemed so different. He was concerned about principles, rule of law, united front, etc. He was talking about something bigger than individual self-enlightened interest. As far as I know, it may have eventually been served by that purpose, but nonetheless, his speech was very inspiring to me. And it made me think why. Why would I follow him into hell after hearing that speech? Then it hit me. Simple! He was talking about something bigger than himself. He was appealing to something more than our own personal peace and affluence. And it was refreshing to hear. It made me think about the nation's state of affairs and the lack of a Bill Hegman on the national political scene. I'm not suggesting Hegman run for president nor do I believe he would survive that or even desire to do it. But I think people are hungry for principles over pragmatic answers. Obama won the election, for the most part, because of his idealistic speeches, although opportunistically insincere, as we now realize. We are hungry to live for something bigger than ourselves. But in our day and age, the trouble seems bigger than we are. In fact, it is paralyzing. Those we trusted seem scared and disorganized. Decisions are ad hoc. It almost can be akin to 6 year old kids operating track hoes and wrecking balls in an art museum. It's bad. It can either cause you to seek refuge in something innocuous or else leave us embittered. It doesn't have to be that way. But in order for us to see it, we need to think bigger than us, and U.S.
U.S. Decay - Economic
Here's some facts from the Treasury Department:
Our annual deficits have historically ran between $200 and $450 billion. There was an exception between 1998 and 2001 when the government operated under a surplus, due to the internet/dot.com economic explosion. However, that bubble popped and we were back at deficits that trend back to early to mid 1990 levels. However, for 2009, alone, the annual deficit is projected to be $1.8 trillion dollars, almost 5 times the high end of past deficits.
Currently, the Treasury has borrowed $7.5 trillion in publically traded debt and another $4 trillion in non-tradible debt. The total outstanding debt load is $11.4 trillion dollars. The average interest rate on publically traded debt is 4% and the interest expense per year equates to about 22% of total tax reciepts.
Speaking of tax receipts and government spending, we have been collecting about $ 2trillion dollars per fiscal year in revenue. For 2009, it is estimated to be $2.1 trillion, a drop from most current years due to the recession. However, spending has gone up one trillion dollars over 2008 spending, topping off just under $4 trillion dollars per year. We bring in half the tax revenue we spend in this fiscal year. The rest is borrowed.
Our debt as a percentage to total gross domestic product is about 45%. China, a communist nation's is around 20%.
When we borrow to fill in the gap, the Treasury department will sell bonds at coupon rates. Since January, the Federal Reserve has sold over $1.2 trillion dollars. However, because the market has been flooded with new US debt, the purchase price for these securities has dropped. Put simply, the value of one more treasury security isn't worth what it was in 2001 since there's trillions of dollars of outstanding securities floating around out there now. The more we sell, the more the price goes down. That causes the yeild to go up (the coupon interest earned compared to purchase price of the bond, rather than the face value). That causes all interest rates that are based on treasury yield to rise.
Some economists, including the Treasury Secretary, that the rising yields are a positive sign that investors are preferring private sector investments...a sign of economic recovery. Very cool story. However, the real reason is that we have flooded the market with debt securities and their value has dropped. It means that next year, if we need another $2 trillion, the Treasury, working with the Fed, will sell $2.7 trillion in order to compensate for this devaluation. But it is also interesting that at the same time as our trouble raising enough money, the fourth largest holder of publically traded securities are Carribean-based offshore banks, of which many cater to drug cartels. So, how much of our debt is actually financed with drug money? Who knows. But when extreme times call for extreme measure, coupled with the true human potential, rather than the potential touted by Oprah and Tim Robbins, we can probably be sure it is growing and significant.
If we miraculously stopped all debt financing today, we will still have almost $12 trillion in debt to pay when, on our best days, we spend about what we bring in, making debt retirement impossible. Most of it these days has been purchased by China. They are concerned about their investment (our debt). Why? Because we haven't issued enough debt to cover our costs (due to lower than expected reciepts, lower market prices on security sales, etc) and so the Fed makes up the difference in cash by buying up existing securities from banks and crediting their account with cash for lending purposes. That makes the value of existing debt, like the debt China holds, devalued even more.
In addition, the U.S. Government now has a say in the banking operations of Bank of America and Citibank, to name a few. Everything down to lending practices and compensation are now under government purview. Once more, they are also involved in the auto industry. The government now has a say in what kind of automobiles GM and Chrysler make. This summer, they are looking at nationalizing health care and getting into that business as well. Outside of providing defense, little else the government has gotten involved has been close to success.
As debt is devalued, so is our currency, since our currency is backed purely by the U.S. good faith and credit. As that good faith and credit becomes devalued, our currency has gone along with it. The dollar is already weaker than its prior comparisons with the Euro, Yen, Renmimbi, etc. We can see it in higher gas prices at the pump. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, we looked to speculators, oil companies or OPEC to place blame for skyrocketing prices at the pump. Today, those prices do not reflect anything more than the simple fact the dollar cannot buy as much oil as it once could. We will see fuel prices continue to rise, along with interest rates, as the dollar goes down and our debt balloons more.
China is getting queazy about investing in all our debt. They are especially queazy about our printing of money to make up for what cash we can't borrow from others, which makes the value of already issued securities, like those held by China, decline. It makes them a little upset and concerned. China's economy has slipped to 6% growth.....let me say that again....China's economy has SLIPPED to 6% growth. It was around 10% before the global crisis. China's nominal GDP was about $4 trillion in 2008. The U.S. real GDP was about $11 trillion. The exchange rate of the Chinese Renmimbi to the U.S. dollar has dropped from over $8 in 2006 to about $6 today. At this rate, the Chinese will surpass the U.S. as the primary economic power in 2030, with very conservative assumptions. It will more than likely come sooner.
With liberals in control, their answer will be higher taxes, not just for the rich but for the middle class since they will begin admitting to the fact that they could never balance the budget by taxing the rich. That will happen after the first round of further tax hikes to the 'rich occurs, and the defined bracket for 'rich slips from the definition of it in the Fall of 2008. There's simply not enough money to 'spread around' to fill the gap. Instead, the 'rich' will halt investment and creation of jobs since more and more operating cash flow goes to income taxes where it once went to payroll and capital investment. The economy will slag, tax receipts will go down as tax rates go up. We will spiral into a condition we have never seen in our entire history. In fact, we have already slipped into it while we were watching NCAA tournament last spring.
And just in case you think I consider Republicans the heroes, keep in mind that I truly believe liberal Democrats are in control because America was tired of Republicans acting irresponsible and ad hoc so we decided to trade out for the real thing, rather than get some song and dance from these people who are supposed to be different from liberal Democrats.
U.S. Decay - Political
Our foriegn policy abroad has shifted as well. We now appease everyone at odds with us, regardless of who they are or where they are. We are closing Gitmo, a first rate holding facility, so that people like Kaleed Sheik Mohamed will be able to get due process under the law. Mr. Mohamed, the architect for 911, has already laughed at our due process and committed to killing us all. But somehow, we think he'll have a 'come to Jesus' if we are able to get him a lawyer and a jury of 12....how shall I say....peers? Our president has apologized to the world for the work of men and women at Gitmo. He has apologized for our men and women's work in Iraq and Afghanistan. He promises that now we are going to behave in accordance with our core values.
What are those core values? No torture. Cool. But torture is defined as subjectively as 'rich' is defined for tax policy. It's clear that waterboarding is not the same thing as water torture or a cat of nine tails. But there is the argument that water boarding doesn't work. That may be. But that has nothing to do with 'core values', even if it may be a better argument. There's a disconnect between the actual arguments and what our president proclaims publically. It's because there's not much of a consistent line of thinking. We want to appease everyone. Everyone is more than willing to be appeased. Demand will meet supply. However, there will be enormous concessions in that appeasement. Anyone who complains about these concessions, assuming they become public while the public can do anything about them, will be met with familiar derision labelling them as 'going backwards to the Bush administration policies'. It seems as if any stupid move the Obama administration makes (and there are scads so far), all critics will be labeled as wanting to return to Bush. That way, they try to avoid any accountability.
ACORN: This group was founded to empower those without any power or influence. That sounds pretty cool. It turns out, they are exploiting those people in order to make money for the liberal party hacks who achieved power. People on the margins were recruited and paid slave wages based on performance....the more you registered, the more you were compensated. As a result, some registered 73 times and 14 states currently are investigating voter fraud from 2008. The State of Nevada alone has investigated ACORN for breaking Nevada election laws, let alone federal laws. The CEO was forced to resign last year upon his embezzling $1 million dollars of tax payer dollars became public.....about 6 years after the fact. The money is gone and no one has pressed charges. By the way, even though helping out those who cannot help themselves is a good thing, those who founded ACORN believed more than that simple virtue. They believed in pure socialism and by funnelling entitlements to the 'disenfranchised' it would put our current form of government in chaos, leading to an opportunity to gain power under a socialist agenda. The means used were bullying. Individuals would bust into an office and make threats unless entitlements were paid. Depending on who you talk to, it is bullying. To the bullies, it was coming to the rescue of the oppressed. I will let the current state of affairs with ACORN be evidence for you to decide which was the case.
Rodney Blogoyovich has started a reality television show with his wife, after being impeached for selling Obama's Senate seat to Roland Burris. Once the press got hold of this, Rahm Emmanuel threw Blog under the bus. Once Mr. Burris became skiddish and details came out about his tit-for-tat, he was thrown under the bus. When the ACORN employees were caught with votor fraud, ACORN threw them under the bus as 'rogue employees'. So much for empowering the disenfranchised.
And because we have been so taken with diversions, like sports, reality television and other things, we have considered our constitutional rights as 'politics', considered as either boring, non-relavent or met with such derision that no participation is an act of participation. We have adds pleading people to vote.....long after the entire vetting process has already been completed by party hacks.
We are the wealthiest nation in all of history. We live better than Louis XIV, Pope Pius XII, Elvis and almost anyone else in history. We have two refrigerators, two or three cars, a television in every room with over 100 channels of content (all of it crap). We eat better than any nation in history and struggle with eating disorders and weight....something that even 18th century France would be astounded. And then we wonder why health care is expensive, gas prices go up or the mortgage industry fails.
In essence, we have been wilfully lulled to sleep by our own success and blessings. Now, we are losing them and we don't know what to do about it, aside find escape in more entertainment or become embittered. As our resolve becomes more confused and ad hoc, other cultures are beginning to rise up in income growth and participation in the world economy. Many saw this coming back in the early 80's, and aside our own screw ups, it was still to be something to contend with. With our screw ups, it is probably something we are to hoplessly acquiesce. Some solace can be taken in that much of these new economic powerhouses have been influenced by us over the years, whether they liked or respected us.
U.S. Decay - Spiritual
The prevalent view of reality is purely physical. What do I mean by that? Anything....whether it is about behavior, morality or even science itself, is understood with one underlying assumption: nothing exists except the material...only that which can be reduced to an explanation through physics and chemistry. First of all, that view is clearly false. But for reasons of this note, I leave that for another time. What I want to discuss are the consequences of that worldview.
If everything is reducable to the material, then things we hold dear...the things that make life life, are illusions and are either abandoned or considered mere practical conventions. For example, we all feel awful when a child goes missing. However, under the materialistic rubric, the only explanation for that moral motion is an evolutionary phenomenon....we hurt for the missing child because we like survival rather than extinction. Anything more read into it is pure myth, under a materialistic view of reality.
It also reduces all goals, values and principles to the individual level, since there can be no real existence of these things since they are non-scientific. So, we try to live with two virtues....do whatever you want so long as you don't hurt anybody and be tolerant of everything. However, the definition of 'hurt' is as subjective as the ethics held and in the end, everybody walks around like raw nerves living to satisfy urges, desires and immediate needs. Paul used to call this living through our bellies. The reference dealt with hunger over all things but it also meant any bodily desire. Sex is no exception. In essence, since morality is a slippery set of non-scientific concepts, they are only important to the indivudal holding them. However, when they clash, things get a little sticky and no one seems to have an overarching solution, since we killed them off with the advent of modern scientific reality.
Morality is reduced to mere pragmatism.
What is right is defined by what gets me what I want. What is wrong is what stands in the way of me getting what I want. It is as simple as that. Entire elections and businesses and cable channels are built around these sad virtues. We are a nation without an anchor. When Obama talks about core values, he hints toward somethin that no longer exists and he knows it. It's pragmatically referred to for political clout, rather than referring the world as a shepherd to a set of objective moral values. The Sura in the Quran he quoted in Cairo sounded neat. However, in context, it was a passage dealing with local apostates that abandoned Mohamed and the instructions on how to deal with such types, such as jihad. I don't think Obama called for jihad. I don't think he's a Muslim or a Christian. I just think he pulled that out and read it like a fortune cookie, just as he would the Bible in another speech. I think he's agnostic or atheist and believes religion is not a vehicle to pay homage to any god, but a political tool to overthrow those in power, in terms of liberal theology.
There is no clear consensus of what we are really all about unless we are viciously attacked. Then we find survival as the only common thread among us all. But that is never enough for a country to thrive. And once the attack begins to fade with other less pressing problems, we begin to become fragmented once again....probably even more than before.
Most of our forefathers were not believers. However, all of them lived within the consensus of a Judeo-Christian worldview. That has been replaced with the consensus of a worldview of matter plus time plus chance. Our personal desires are the new constitution and with that situation, truly, anything goes in a nation without any objectively spiritual health.
U.S. Decay - No Return...at least not in our time or our way.
Here's the bad news: the party is over. Our nation will probably never be what it once was (and that does not include an arctic sheild covered with ice). We will soon be eclipsed by the Chinese economy, never to return to our place in world affairs. In fact, the new economic powerhouse will be the Pacific Rim, in general. We can blame Republicans or Democrats, but in the end, we are to blame because we are a nation of self-determined citizens. We have determined it, not by choice, but by proxy. Our participation has become more and more limited because, just like remote controls for changing channels without having to get up out of our chair, we can allow the parties to run everything for us, let the government do everything for us, and just hope it all works out while we seek more and more diversions to fill the ever increasing hole in our hearts.
The election in 2010 will probably not be anything out of the ordinary compared to other elections. Party power may change, but the same yahoos doing the same things, all over again. That's because, now, if we understood what it takes to change everything given our constitution abilities, it would require enormous life changes in most of us right now, in order to make such a change by 2010. That probably won't happen.
Here's the good news: God is entirely in control. He probably ordained our fall. Why? Some would say it was because of our past sins....current sins....sins to come. Probably part of it. I think if it is ordained, it isn't simply a punishment-reward strategy. It's probably something much more interesting....and if we believe Paul's letter, something good for us who entrust ourselves in Jesus Christ. Read Acts 1. Keep in mind that Jesus' followers had seen much over the past 3 1/2 years. They even watched Him die an agonizing death, yet come back to life and teach them, culminating in this scene in chapter 1. After all of that, Jesus told them to wait.....which turns out to be a really big deal. What were they expecting?
"So, when they met together, they asked him, 'Lord, are you at this time going to restore the kingdom to Israel?'" Acts 1:6
To see your leader scourged and crucified was enough to make you forget about politics. To see that same leader show up after getting up and walking out of the tomb should make politics seem about as important your tire pressure. However, because we are creatures of familiarity, we like connecting the truth we discover with the familiar we like, even though the familiar we like may be deemed to parish. Not only did Jesus not restore the kingdom to Israel at that time, He allowed those in charge to persecute them and scatter them to the four corners of the world.
And it was a good thing He did. Otherwise, hardly anyone gentile would have any idea about the Gospel of Jesus Christ. If you were to ask those people as Herod's people, Caiaphas' people or Roman governers imprisoned them, beat them, forced them from commerce, etc, they probably wondered where God was and when He was going to do something about it. He did. But it was antithetical to what they expected. Instead of defeating all the bad guys and restoring Jerusalem to Jesus, He purposefully permitted persecution from the bad guys. They ended up in Samaria. But they couldn't find peace there either. Some ended up in India. Others in Egypt. Others still in Greece, Rome and Spain. As they fled, they brought with them the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Home churches sprung up all over the Roman Empire and beyond.
What lessons does Acts have for us today? I think we Christians are guilty of thinking Jesus was American and God loves democracy. But, if we are serious students of the Bible, we should be able to at least reference Romans 11:33-36. Oh the depth of the riches of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable His judgments, and His paths beyond tracing out! Who has known the mind of the Lord? Or who has been His counsel? Those are rhetorical questions, by the way. The answer is 'no one'.
It could be that God deems the U.S. to decay and fade away into history. I know that sounds almost heretical. But I bet some might consider it heretical had Jesus said what was already known to Him at the time they asked Him about the kindgom and Israel too.
Let me give you another bit of advice from my good friend James:
"Now listen, you who say, 'Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money'. Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes. Instead, you should say, 'If it is the Lord's will, we will live and do this or that.'"
America wasn't great because Americans were geniuses. America was great because God permitted it to be great for a time. You don't have three cars or a cool sunroom because youi are one hell of a wage earner. You have more than you need because God permitted it. Had God not permitted it, it wouldn't matter how smart, innovative or clever you were. It would not happen. Period. That goes for those who follow Jesus as well as those who have nothing to do with Him.
For those who don't know Him, I want to talk to you a minute about this. What keeps you from the next physical showing cancer in your lymphnodes? What keeps the pilot from crashing your plane into the Atlantic? These are things you have no control. You can take vitamins, run 12 miles per day, lift weights and meditate like David Carradine. But none of that will stop those things that are completely outside your control from taking you out of the game and fast. You call that 'fate' or 'bad luck' but in all actuality, it isn't either. Whether you admit it or not, one thing you have to admit, you cannot say you can buy or sell, make money, spend money or even live tomorrow, no matter how well you have prepared to do it. Niether do I. In fact, the only difference between you and I is that I have an intimate relationship with the One who does determine the times, places and events for everyone. There's nothing special about me and, in fact, there is no excuse for you not to have the same thing, considering my past and my shortfalls.
Hell isn't a place for bad people. If it were, I would already be there. It's a place for those who refuse His grace and love. The doors are locked on the inside on 'our terms'. Why doesn't He make you desire His grace and love, rather than keep you in position of disrespect and disdain you live in now? I can confidently tell you that if you are asking that question, then He is already working on your heart and wonderful things are ahead of you. The only ones in serious trouble are those who don't give a damn. If you want to know more about what He offers or have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. It's my primary vocation to talk about His grace, love and the power of His Kingdom for your life right now. Everything else is a means to that end. Don't hesitate and do not worry about confidences either. I completely understand and have been there. Just don't delay.
For those of you who do know Him, I want to say this to you. We don't belong to this world. This world hated Him, it hates us too. Just watch the news or any program. Believers in Christ are not liked or respected. He told you that was the case. But He also offers you a peace the world could never offer. He offers something that is available to you now that the world searches for in vain. There is no reason for you to be concerned about your country. It has always been in His hands in the first place. If He deems it to go away, which He probably will, we need to remember we don't live for a nation or nations. We live for Him and Him alone. Once more, the One we serve isn't an elected official, but a King. We are citizens of a cosmic monarchy. Human institutions need Democracy and checks and balances because people are screwed up and capable of about anything. His Kingdom doesn't require these things, because what applies to us, doesn't apply to Him. And being plugged into His Kingdom makes us more and more like Him....and hence, very dangerous in this world.
I don't know about you, but dangerous, in this sense, sounds much better than any political revolution or economic domination.
It could be that He does the same thing with us that He did with those in Jerusalem. He may decide to scatter us too. We may not like it either. But I can garantee that it will be for the best and once we end up in a foreign land at an old age, looking back, we can see His fingerprints and glory all over our lives, even though we may have been scared and uncertain the entire time.
I'm not happy with the way things are going in the world and our nation. I think we have an opportunity to get involved and try to change it. We should get involved BEFORE the primaries and not let party hacks dictate the idiots we have to choose from in the general elections. We can do alot and you should not read anything in my words that state we should do nothing. On the contrary. But what you should understand that no matter how involved we get....no matter what we need to do to make changes for the better.....never should we be concerned that the rudder of this nation or the world is on our shoulders. It never was in the first place. It is all in His hands. It always has been. The cross and empty tomb doesn't just designate a new way of life. It reflects victory....complete victory. He wins. And we get to be co-heirs, if we want. In the end, what matters is what Jesus asks of us all....to go out into all nations, making disciples, baptising in the name of the Father, Son and Spirit....and remembering throughout it all, that we are never left orphaned....ever.
Here's another not-so-secret reality: nobody really has any answers or knows what to do about hardly anything. Using human ingenuity and accumen, we are hopeless. And those clowns that have the answers are clowns. They just also happen to be burning mountains of cash as well.
So, let the spilt milk rot. Let the interest rates bloom. Let oil prices sky rocket. Let our leaders continue to decay into the total deprived creatures they really are. No sweat. We belong to something much bigger that doesn't decay. In fact, it continues to unfold and grow, like a secret conspiracy, in the midst of all this decay. And we are a part of it. We all have incredible opportunity, work and good to spread, empowered by the One who controls all things. The entire cosmos is ours and eternity is our time line, as nations rise and fall.
Now, doesn't that sound good? It sure does to me.
